According to a joint report released by the Federal Ministry of Health and Human Services, WHO, and UNICEF, a prolonged drought in Somalia since 2017, which has displaced over 3.5 million people across the country, has killed over 43000 people in 2022, a figure higher than that of the first year of the 2017-2018 drought crisis. Half of these deaths may have occurred among children under the age of five.

The findings of the report were released on March 20, 2023, in Mogadishu by the Health Minister of Somalia, Dr Ali Hadji Adam Abubakar, in the presence of Mr Adam Abdelmoula, Deputy Special Representative of the Secretary-General and United Nations Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator for Somalia, Ms Wafaa Saeed, UNICEF Country Representative of Somalia and Dr Sk Md Mamunur Rahman Malik, WHO Representative for Somalia.

Pointing out that for the first time, a scenario-based forecast model was developed from the same study to enable anticipatory action and avert drought-related deaths, the forecast for January to June 2023 estimates that 135 people might also die each day due to the crisis, with total deaths projected to fall between 18,100 and 34,200 during this period.

The report emphasised that the crisis is far from over, noting that the situation is already worse than the 2017-2018 drought crisis for the time being, though famines in the country have been avoided for the time being.

Commissioned by the UNICEF Regional Office and WHO Somalia country office and carried out by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and Imperial College London, the study presents retrospective estimates of mortality across Somalia from January to December 2022.

According to the report, the highest death rates were estimated to have occurred in south-central Somalia, especially the areas around Bay, Bakool and Banadir regions, the current epicentre of the drought.

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“At the same time, we are optimistic that if we can sustain our ongoing and scaled-up health and nutrition actions and humanitarian response to save lives and protect the health of our vulnerable, we can push back the risk of famine forever, else those vulnerable and marginalized will pay the price of this crisis with their lives,” he added.

“We, therefore, urge all our partners and donors to continue to support the health sector in building a resilient health system that works for everyone and not for the few,” he further added while appealing for increasing aid to ward off the looming crisis.

Commenting on the study findings, WHO Representative Dr Mamunur Rahman Malik, said, “We are racing against time to prevent deaths and save lives that are avoidable.”

Emphasising that if the global community fails to act now, Somalia will  witness more people dying from the disease than from the combined effects of hunger and malnutrition, Dr Malik added, “The cost of our inaction will mean that children, women and other vulnerable people will pay with their lives while we hopelessly, helplessly, witness the tragedy unfold.”

Pointing out that since the beginning of the crisis, the UN Health Agency has clearly stated that the drought is a health crisis as much as it is a food and climate crisis, the WHO official said that the agency’s main concern has been to prevent excess deaths directly or indirectly attributed to drought with a special focus on women and children under five years of age.

“As such, WHO has stepped up its life-saving integrated health interventions throughout 2022 and would continue to do so in 2023 to avert every preventable death in Somalia,” Dr Malik added.

"We are saddened by these deaths, and we know there could have been many more deaths had humanitarian assistance not been scaled up to reach affected communities," UNICEF Representative Wafaa Saeed said, emphasising that the report's findings paint a bleak picture of the devastation caused by the drought on children and their families.

“We must continue to save lives by preventing and treating malnutrition, providing safe and clean water, improving access to life-saving health services, immunising children against deadly diseases such as measles and providing critical protection services,” she added.