GSK has revised its 2024 vaccine sales prediction downward, citing a recent update from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccines. The British pharmaceutical giant now expects vaccine sales to rise by a modest low- to mid-single-digit percentage, down from the previously predicted high single- to low double-digit percentage growth.

According to media reports, the change in perspective comes because the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) limits RSV vaccine recommendations. The updated guidelines, released in June, recommend that only people aged 75 and more, as well as those aged 60–74 with certain chronic diseases or who live in nursing homes, get the vaccine. The FDA authorized GSK's RSV vaccine, Arexvy, prior to its recommendation for further age groups.

GSK's flagship shingles vaccine, Shingrix, also suffered setbacks, with sales falling 5.5% year over year in the second quarter. Shingrix sales in the United States have declined dramatically, which GSK attributes to changes in vaccine prioritization and inventory management, as well as the high current penetration rate among its target group.

Despite these hurdles, GSK CEO Emma Walmsley voiced optimism about the company's long-term prospects. "I believe 2025 will be a year of growth, and peak-year sales for Arexvy are secure," she told me. The corporation has set a target of 3 billion pounds for Arexvy's peak annual revenues.

Following the CDC's amended guidelines, Airfinity, a health analytics organization, reduced the RSV vaccine market's value prediction from $4.7 billion to $1.7 billion in 2030. Walmsley, on the other hand, cited Arexvy's excellent efficacy, particularly among high-risk clients, as a significant advantage.

In response to the CDC's new strategy, GSK maintains its focus on long-term growth and international expansion. The company is looking into new collaborations in China and expects its RSV vaccine to remain the market leader in the coming seasons. Despite immediate difficulties, GSK's overall outlook for the year is optimistic thanks to outstanding results in HIV therapies and oncology.

The latest CDC guidelines take a tailored approach to the RSV vaccine, focusing on individuals who are most at risk. Dr. Mandy Cohen, CDC Director, emphasized the significance of immunizing the most vulnerable, saying, "The CDC has updated its RSV vaccination recommendation for older adults to prioritize those at highest risk for serious illness from RSV."