A recent study published in the Annals of Oncology predicts a drop in breast cancer mortality rates across all age groups in the EU and the UK by 2025, with one alarming exception: elderly EU women aged 80 and older, where a roughly 10% increase is expected.

In contrast, the UK is predicted to witness a 7% decrease in breast cancer fatalities among women of this age group, while Spain expects a 4% decrease. The studies, led by Professor Carlo La Vecchia of the University of Milan, highlight discrepancies in screening and treatment availability for older individuals.

Disparities in Breast Cancer Mortality Trends

While advances in cancer management, ranging from sophisticated chemotherapy to hormone medicines such as trastuzumab, have led to a reduction in overall mortality, they have not benefitted all age groups equally.

"Elderly women are not covered by screening and probably are less favourably affected by the substantial advances in breast cancer management, including improvements in chemo- and hormone therapy, such as trastuzumab and related drugs, but also in radiotherapy and surgery," commented Prof. La Vecchia.

Obesity is emerging as an additional risk factor. The rising incidence of overweight and obesity in northern and central Europe has raised the risk of breast cancer, especially among the elderly who have not benefitted from improved screening and treatment regimens.

Projected decline in breast cancer deaths among younger age groups

Despite the fact that younger women aged 20-49 do not normally receive regular screening, their breast cancer mortality rates are expected to fall—by around 7% in the EU and a considerable 15% in the UK—when compared to numbers from 2015 to 2019.

Overall, by 2025, breast cancer fatalities are anticipated to fall by 4% in the EU and 6% in the UK, with an age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) of 13.3 per 100,000 women in the EU and 13.2 per 100,000 in the UK.

Lower Breast Cancer Mortality Rates in the European Union.

Recent data show an encouraging trend in breast cancer mortality throughout the majority of European Union countries, with certain nations experiencing considerable reductions in death rates. Germany leads the way with a significant 14% decrease in breast cancer fatalities, followed by the United Kingdom with a 10% reduction and Poland with a 9% decrease. France and Spain both claim 8% reductions in mortality rates, while Italy shows a more modest but still positive 2% reduction.

These reducing trends are constant across age groups, with total death rates decreasing by 7% to 12% across the EU. The exception to this positive outlook is among women aged 80 and up, where no similar reductions have been found. This age-related discrepancy highlights possible areas for targeted intervention and additional research.

The disparities in decrease rates among countries may be due to variances in healthcare systems, screening programs, treatment methods, and risk factor prevalence. Significant gains in Germany, the United Kingdom, and Poland may reflect the successful implementation of comprehensive breast cancer prevention, early diagnosis, and treatment programs in these countries.

These statistics are more than just numbers; they represent thousands of lives saved and better quality of life for breast cancer patients and their families throughout Europe. The sustained drop in mortality rates encourages greater research, improved screening technologies, and more effective treatment choices to lessen the burden of breast cancer across the European Union.

Effects of improved screening and treatment

According to the study, between 1989 and 2025, advances in medical treatment and early detection averted an estimated 373,000 breast cancer deaths in the EU and 197,000 in the UK.

"Most of these are due to improved management and therapy, but 25-30% are likely to be attributable to more widespread screening and early diagnosis," said Professor La Vecchia.

He emphasised the importance of comprehensive cancer care centres for effective treatment: "Given that breast cancer is now largely curable and requires modern integrated approaches, it is essential that all breast cancer diagnoses are referred to comprehensive cancer centres, which can offer the full range of therapies that may be required."

Broader cancer mortality trends in the EU and UK

The study also examined mortality trends for certain malignancies in EU Member States and the United Kingdom. It anticipates a 3.5% decrease in male cancer mortality and a 1% decrease in female cancer mortality in the EU between 2020 and 2025. The UK fared better, with expected decreases of 10% in males and 6% in women.

While humanity celebrates advances in cancer treatment and prevention, with death rates gradually declining in many regions, a demographic change is changing the face of cancer mortality. The world's population is ageing at an unprecedented rate, with people living longer than ever. This demographic transition creates a difficult picture in which, despite improved survival rates, the absolute number of cancer deaths is expected to increase dramatically.

We anticipate roughly 709,400 cancer-related deaths among men and 570,500 among women in the European Union in 2025. The United Kingdom follows with forecasts of 92,200 male fatalities and 81,100 female cancer deaths. These data represent not just the natural trend of cancer incidence with age but also the increasing proportion of senior people in our communities who are predisposed to cancer growth.

The growing risk of pancreatic and lung cancer

While most malignancies have a decreasing fatality rate, pancreatic cancer remains a significant concern. Death rates in the EU are predicted to grow by 2% for men and 3% for women. In the United Kingdom, only bowel and uterine malignancies will rise (by less than 1% each).

Lung cancer, particularly among women, is on the rise in the EU, up roughly 4%. Prof. Eva Negri of the University of Bologna emphasised the importance of tobacco control, adding, "Smoking is by far the leading recognised cause of pancreatic cancer, accounting for 20–35% of cases." Controlling and avoiding smoking remains the major objective for pancreatic cancer prevention."

Overall, the study shows a promising outlook for cancer mortality, but it also reveals key areas that require intervention, particularly among older breast cancer patients, where screening and treatment gaps must be addressed immediately. Prof. La Vecchia noted that rising obesity rates and insufficient screening coverage for younger and older populations are ongoing issues.

"The trends in pancreatic and female lung cancer underline the urgency of implementing stricter tobacco control across Europe," the professor said.

While significant progress has been made, guaranteeing equitable access to cutting-edge therapies and preventive measures will be critical to maintaining long-term decreases in cancer mortality