Advancements in Medicine No Longer Guarantee Increased Life Expectancy, Study Finds

The belief that most people born today will live to see their 100th birthday is facing skepticism. New research published in Nature Aging reveals that the dramatic increases in life expectancy witnessed in the 19th and 20th centuries have significantly slowed in recent decades, suggesting humans may be approaching a biological limit to longevity.

Researchers found that in countries with the longest-living populations, life expectancy at birth has increased by just 6.5 years on average since 1990. This is in stark contrast to the near doubling of life expectancy seen throughout the 20th century, which was primarily attributed to advances in disease prevention and medical interventions.

“Most people alive today at older ages are living on time that was manufactured by medicine,” said S. Jay Olshansky, lead author of the study and a professor at the University of Illinois Chicago School of Public Health. “But these medical Band-Aids are producing fewer years of life even though they’re occurring at an accelerated pace, implying that the period of rapid increases in life expectancy is now documented to be over.”

A baby born in the United States today can expect to live to 77.5 years, with a girl’s life expectancy averaging 80.2 years and a boy’s lifespan averaging 74.8 years, according to data from the National Center for Health Statistics. While this may seem promising, it falls short of previous predictions that suggested a continual rise in lifespan.

Olshansky, who has studied life expectancy for decades, first proposed in a 1990 Science journal paper that life expectancy for humans would peak at around 85 years. At the time, other researchers disagreed, forecasting that breakthroughs in healthcare would push life expectancy even higher. However, the new findings suggest otherwise.

The research examined data from Hong Kong and eight countries with the highest life expectancy, as well as the United States, where life expectancy has actually declined in recent years. The results indicate that future gains in life expectancy will continue to diminish as more people encounter the inevitable effects of aging.

“Our findings overturn the conventional wisdom that the natural longevity endowment for our species lies somewhere ahead of us,” said Olshansky in a university news release. “Instead, it’s behind us, somewhere in the 30- to 60-year range. We’ve now proven that modern medicine is yielding incrementally smaller improvements in longevity even though medical advances are occurring at breakneck speed.”

While it’s possible that more people will live to 100 in the future, they will remain the exception rather than the rule, he noted. This stands in contrast to projections made by insurers and wealth management firms that assume a majority of people will live to see their centennial birthdays—a miscalculation Olshansky calls “profoundly bad advice.”

The study suggests that future scientific and medical advancements should focus more on improving the quality of life rather than merely extending it. Researchers advocate for increased investment in geroscience, the study of aging, which could be pivotal in shaping the next wave of health and life extension breakthroughs.

“This is a glass ceiling, not a brick wall,” Olshansky emphasized. He believes that while humans may have reached a natural cap on life expectancy, there is still room to improve health outcomes.

The study encourages reducing risk factors, eliminating disparities, and promoting healthier lifestyles as a means to enable people to live longer and healthier lives. “We can push through the glass health and longevity ceiling with geroscience and efforts to slow the effects of aging,” Olshansky concluded.

Implications for Future Health Planning

These findings have significant implications for public health policy, retirement planning, and societal perceptions of aging. As longevity gains become harder to achieve, there may be a greater need to shift focus from extending life to enhancing life quality during aging.